When I say that it is either Obama or chaos I don't mean that a Romney victory would mean chaos. Rather, that with Obama ahead in most polls in the key swing states most of the scenarios that would give these states to Romney will be chaotic. If the vote is within 200,000 or so in Ohio, the recount won't even start until November 17 when the 200,000 provisional ballots (absentee voters who decided that they wanted to vote in a polling place) are counted.
Whether or not the vote is close depends on many things - there is a good chance that polls have been overestimating the likelihood of younger democratic leaning voters making it to the polls. On top of this, with high pressure "ground game" and massive text messages many potential voters in swing states have been so inundated with election ads that they could very easily have taken to habitually lying to those who are asking them about whether and when they vote. It's also possible that there will be more unlikely but registered voters who get dragged to the polls almost against their will, but with early voting many of those who don't feel like voting can lie about having voted already. One additional wrinkle is there are supposedly internal Romney polls that indicate that he is winning in Ohio, but his team has a massive incentive to lie about being ahead in order to encourage their supporters to go out and vote - on net people like to be part of the winning team.
For those of you looking to track the election results tonight, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ has done well in the past. But it would probably be more productive to spend your time seeing Wreck it Ralph. It's a good movie and stressing out over voting results isn't going to change anything.