Palin 2012?

The high value of Palin’s 2010 Republican nominee Intrade contract is probably more representative of the wishful thinking of certain Palin supporters than an unbiased prediction of future probabilities. This happened in the last election with Gore’s VP contract, so Palin supporters probably shouldn’t get too excited about this market’s prediction.

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But isn't this a real market where people buy and sell? If she is in the low 20s it says that there is a 1 in four or 1 in five chance. I think that is reasonable, particularly since she has no really strong competitor.
— Joe Sr.
The collateral requirements combined with the illiquidity, high bid ask spread and small size of the market make the prices relatively inefficient for a market. They are often better than nothing, but when Ron Paul has over a 3% chance to win the republican nomination this election and for most of last election cycle's primary there is obviously something wrong with the market.
— Jeff Lonsdale
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