Some people think that large cities automatically imply liberal cities, while smaller cities are more conservative. This type of analysis ignores the conservatism of Oklahoma City and the liberalism of Berkeley, California (or Gary, Indiana). Using data from the 2004 election and population size data, both from the Bay Area Center for Voting Research report on “The Most Conservative and Liberal Cities in the United States” we can see how much city size moves a city towards being liberal or conservative.
The data is restricted to cities over 100k population, so this might not catch the “small town” effect. Some comments on the drivers of this relatively weak, yet significant, relationship.
- Demographics matter more. African American and to a lesser extent Hispanic populations (excluding Cubans) will vote liberal regardless of whether or not they are in a smaller city.
- Cities with older populations will be more likely to be conservative.
- Large cities tend to attract young single people, who are more likely to be liberal while the married couples in the suburbs lean more conservative.
The difference between rural and urban areas is larger than the above chart suggests. According to CNN Exit polls, Obama won big cities 63% to 35%, while he lost rural areas 45% to 53%. These numbers are unadjusted for the racial composition of these areas. Still, looking at these factors is more enlightening than the typical “red state/blue state/swing state” approach.