An outdated lottery heuristic

In January the people behind Powerball implemented an idea: Double the price of the Powerball ticket to generate bigger jackpots.  That strategy is paying off now, with the Powerball Jackpot near $500 million dollars and people are getting very excited about it. But it's important to note that this lottery is farther from positive expected value than the Mega Millions jackpot was.  That's because the price is raised to 2 dollars a ticket, so a "1 in 175 million" means that the jackpot needs to be doubled until it gets closer to the almost positive expected value seen in March of this year.

This marketing gimmick is interesting, since it plays on two factors:

1. The chance to win a large amount of money is seen as very interesting by many people.

2. There was a heuristic widely used by people that when a jackpot got to be a certain size it was positive expected value (before taking into account the lump sum payment, taxes and the chance to split the pot) to play the lottery.

By doubling the price of the Powerball ticket they have effectively short circuited a widely used heuristic. People didn't notice this time, but maybe those who pay attention to the math behind the lottery will learn to wait until the jackpot hits a billion dollars before getting excited about Powerball again. Even then, it would still be excitement about a slightly negative expected value.

Disclosure: I currently have no positions in lottery tickets.