Eric Falkenstein has a post up highlighting another area where there seems to be money on the sidewalk: Shorting the Vix. He notes that the VXX has underperformed a hypothetical outright short VIX position by a large margin due to the contango in the curve.
1. Scott Sumner Has an open letter to conservatives about monetary policy. A lot of it is pretty reasonable, but he makes the mistake of thinking that conservatives care about nominal GDP when in reality they care more about real GDP.
Mark Cuban has a blog post up where he shows that he thinks the government should encourage people to work at steady 250k a year jobs rather than getting a job in a potentially successful start up where they are often paid via high capital gains. He tries to justify this by calling it "earned money" vs. "found money" but his definition of "found money" sounds awfully similar to something that would impact early employees in a successful start up.
The disparity in wealth in this country does not come on the backs of people making 250k, or even 500k or 1mm per year FROM THEIR JOBS. The ever increasing delta between the rich and everyone else does not come from EARNED INCOME at all. It comes from found money.
Found money is when an internet bubble hits and the options you got for 1 dollar are sold for 250. It comes from buying a stock for $1 and seeing it turn into a “10 bagger”. It comes from hitting the lottery. It doesn’t matter whether you were smart or lucky, it is money you FOUND based on good fortune.
When I sold broadcast.com does anyone seriously think I would have cared if the tax on my FOUND money was 10pct or 20pct more ? Hell no. Would I have made any decisions differently, HELL NO.
For long term capital gains, it would be more difficult, but I would tax it at a gain greater than $1mm or a basis equal to the compounded CPI for every year held, against a 300pct increase and reduce the GOT LUCKY percentage to 20pct..
Ford was the only domestic auto manufacturer to avoid bankruptcy or take a bailout from the federal government.
Last Friday the BLS released their benchmark revision with this month's nonfarm payroll number. This number is an under appreciated statistic, as the information it provides about the jobs picture is much larger than the monthly change*. The benchmark revision was -366,000, while the monthly job change in September was -95,000. This means that their 2010 estimates of the amount of people working need to be adjusted down by 0.3%.
Industry: Benchmark revision (Percent revision)
Total nonfarm: -366,000 (-0.3)
Total private: -371,000 (-.4)
Mining and logging: -20,000 (-3.0)
Construction: -62,000 (-1.2)
Manufacturing: -114,000 (-1.0)
Trade, transportation, and utilities: -144,000 (-.6)
Information: -11,000 (-.4)
Financial activities: 42,000 (.6)
Professional and business services: 14,000 (.1)
Education and health services: 6,000 (*)
Leisure and hospitality: -91,000 (-.7)
Other services: 9,000 (.2)
Government: 5,000 (*)
(*) Less than 0.05 percent.
Sources of nonsampling error include coverage, response, and processing errors in both data series. Additionally, the survey is potentially subject to sample design and estimator biases.