One of the aspects of the coming capital gains tax raise is that stocks that pay out their earnings in dividends become relatively more attractive when compared to stocks that retain their earnings or give money back to shareholders via buybacks and so are more likely to return value to shareholders via capital gains rather than dividends.
Low dividend/High Dividend Paying Stocks, unadjusted for dividends:
Note on creation of indices: (Done with Palantir Finance)
S&P 500 companies
Excluding lowest decile of 11 month return to filter out failing companies
High dividend stocks: Top Quartile of High Dividend Paying Stocks, current average dividend yield of almost 5%.
Low Dividend Paying Stocks: Bottom quartile, average dividend yield close to 0%
The big decline in 2000 through 2002 was the unraveling of the tech bubble. The dip in 2008 looks cyclical, as companies at the closest to the epicenter of the boom and bust are less likely to be the ones returning money to shareholders. In the same way, the companies that outperform at the end of a crash are the companies who barely survived, and companies that barely survive are less likely to be distributing needed cash to shareholders.