The tax hike and the anti-investment

It is important to note that gold isn’t going to be impacted by the upcoming change in the capital gains tax rate. Gold is already taxed more than other assets because under current tax law gold is a collectible. The capital gains tax on collectibles is 28%, 13% higher than the current tax rate of other assets. With a hike in the capital gains tax rate from 15% to 20% at the end of 2010 this spread decreases to 8%.  If the healthcare bill passes the senate and the house in its currently proposed form then this spread will be reduced even further at the end of 2011.

Gold has always been one of the closest things to an anti-investment; people invest more in gold when they aren’t sure that other investments are a good way to preserve their capital. The current trend in policy of taxing other forms of investment more while not taxing collectibles at a higher rate is only going to make the anti-investment look relatively more attractive.

This Gold/S&P 500 chart helps put the relative performance of gold and equities (unadjusted for dividends) in historical context. Gold’s best relative performance occurred during the deflationary crash of 1929 and the inflationary scare of the 1970’s.

Source: Palantir Finance

2 responses
Interesting -- I was discussing the gold's relative tax rate the other day. What does an overlay of relative tax rates look like? And what specifically is the Y axis ratio? Gold during the Depression is pretty messy number. History has a tendency to oversimplify things!
Re chart and gold price: The Y axis ratio is the spot price of gold over the S&P 500. The latest number is 0.96. I believe the source of the gold prices during depression times comes from the USGS, though Palantir may have found another source. In general, looking at gold prices historically as I did above is a bit of an oversimplification because the price of gold only freely floated recently. After the gold standard ended in the US its price was fixed from 1933 at around 32 $/oz until the end of the Bretton Woods system (1944-1971) and it was illegal for US citizens to even own gold bullion without a license from 1933 until 1975.

Re taxes: It appears the rate diverged in with the capital gains tax cuts in 1997 (See http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/2088.html ).