On bearish journalists and bullish asset managers

"Any intelligent commentator will over time feel more comfortable from the bear position, just as most traders trade from a bullish bias.  There are more negative things that can be said in an intelligent way. The hidden order of markets that generally make things work is not easily described by a journalist.  The only consistently intelligent bullish commentary I've read has been from Niederhoffer and McKinsey. There is more money to be made buying assets than selling them short.  However, that doesn't prevent dedicated short sellers from making money."

This is an excerpt from an email I sent to a friend over four years ago. It's still rings true today, even if asset managers with a bullish bias have not has positive returns in recent years. There is only so much money that can be allocated towards selling assets short. If it is ever the case that short funds seem almost as popular as long funds, it probably means that it is time to load up the truck and buy equities.

About

I studied Bioengineering at the University of California at San Diego. While there I served as a trustee on the investment committee of the UCSD Student Foundation, a group that manages an endowment to fund scholarships. While in college I applied my interest in finance and economics by working as a summer associate at Clarium Capital Management, working part time my senior year, and joining full time when I graduated in 2006, staying there through August 2010. I am currently working as a portfolio manager at another global macro hedge-fund in the Presidio (And blogging about more directly market related ideas at their restricted blog). I’ve been focusing on quantitative finance, currencies, commodities, the interplay between finance and politics, demography and other long term trends.

Disclaimer: You shouldn’t consider anything on this site to be a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or commodities. I’m not offering you investment advice. I or the company I work for may hold positions in securities that I mention.