Autocorrelated protests

I'm starting to wonder if any of the flame sparked by Tunisia's protesters will spread to the developed world in any form.  The current events in Wisconsin might be slightly related. The Wisconsin protests may have stemmed by opposition to the drastic but mostly necessary measures* proposed by Wisconsin's governor, but they also occurred because events in the Middle East have reminded people about the potential power of crowds. Some people may not realize it, but the protests are effective because there is an implicit threat that the protesters might turn angry. This is part of why it is considered very impolite to protest in front of someones private house

Comparing Wisconsin to the Middle East protests in general and Tunisia in particular seems a little silly at first.  Wisconsin is nowhere near as extreme as Tunisia, the privileges the union is trying to protect and their potential to turn into a scene of large scale destruction** is lower than anything going in the Middle East.  But they do have something in common with Tunisia, Wisconsin will give people feedback on how successfully they can manipulate the political system by mobilizing people for large scale protests.

In 1959, Wisconsin became the first state to give their employees collective bargaining rights. They are going to be a trend setter again. The only question is whether they are setting the trend of disempowering public sector unions or increasing the power of public protests.

*The overall cuts seem reasonable in light of their budget and banning collective bargaining is either to allow local government to more easily balance their budgets or it is a clever ploy to eventually give the unions something that looks like a major victory even after the governor got all of the pension and health care concessions he wanted.  It can also be a threat that is left hanging in the air in order to force the unions to cooperate as long as Republicans are in charge.

**Museums are unlikely to be looted and police stations probably won't be burned down.
3 responses
Slight correction: It's not necessary from Wisconsin's budgetary standpoint. This was a state running a surplus in a recession last year. What changed was a Republican governor, three tax cuts, and an ideological plan to rid unions of collective bargaining.

Just saying... :)

Their pensions are actually massively underfunded either way - from what I've read they are only 97% funded because they haven't accounted for losses in the recession and they are assuming an 8% return going forward. Local governments everywhere need to start having their employees contribute more, and even more need to switch over to defined contribution plans instead of defined benefit plans.

Wisconsin could choose to raise taxes to pay for the teachers, but it is unclear how sustainable this approach is in the long run. We can see how this might have turned out by comparing Wisconsin to Minnesota in a few years because Minnesota looks like they are taking the raising taxes approach to their deficit. Federalism is awesome like that.

Bah, Politifact proves me wrong on the budget numbers it looks like: http://politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2011/feb/18/rachel-maddow/rachel-m...

It'll be Ireland vs. Iceland all over again. :P