A Simple Model of Developing Countries in a Resource Constrained World

One of the constant themes of globalization is that many people feel like the developing countries are hurting them.  While in most cases the benefits to consumers outweighs the opportunity cost of the people who have just lost their jobs, there are some cases where the emergence of the developing country can hurt the developed country overall.

Take the following three country model, each country producing two goods (Tech and Resources), at times one and time two:

Time 1:

A: 100 Tech, 20 Resources 
B: 20 Tech, 100 Resources
C: 5 Tech, 5 Resources

Time 2:

A: 110 Tech, 20 Resources
B: 20 Tech, 100 Resources
C: 30 Tech, 5 Resources

In this example country A is the developed country, country B is the commodity producing country and country C is the developing country.  At Time 1, both country A and country B benefit from trade, while country C doesn't need to trade since it doesn't have any comparative advantage relative to countries A and B.  At time 2, technological progress has enabled more Tech goods to be produced by countries A and technological catch up has allowed country C to drastically increase their Tech production, but resource constraints have prevented any increase in Resource production.  In this scenario, Country A is damaged by country C's arrival on the global trade scene, even though this damage is mitigated by its benefits to countries B and C.

It is important to note that short of measures preventing technological knowledge from getting to country C in the first place, there is no economic policy that protects country A from this globalization driven negative terms of trade shift.

About

I studied Bioengineering at the University of California at San Diego. While there I served as a trustee on the investment committee of the UCSD Student Foundation, a group that manages an endowment to fund scholarships. While in college I applied my interest in finance and economics by working as a summer associate at Clarium Capital Management, working part time my senior year, and joining full time when I graduated in 2006, staying there through August 2010. I am currently working as a portfolio manager at another global macro hedge-fund in the Presidio (And blogging about more directly market related ideas at their restricted blog). I’ve been focusing on quantitative finance, currencies, commodities, the interplay between finance and politics, demography and other long term trends.

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